Zambia Budget Execution Tracker (2025)

Monitoring In-Year Financial Performance: Actual vs. Target (Jan - Aug 2025)

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Overall Fiscal Performance (Jan - Aug 2025)

Total Revenue & Grants Collected

K 118.9 Billion

Target (K125.6bn). Performance: -5.3% below target.

Total Expenditure Executed

K 137.7 Billion

Target (K152.0bn). Performance: -9.4% below target.

Full-Year Deficit Projection

~4.6% of GDP

Initial Target: 3.1% of GDP. Revised due to higher interest/arrears payments.

Key Programmatic Targets

Domestic Revenue Performance (Jan - Aug)

Non-Mining Tax Revenue (Non-Mining Tax Revenue) - K 94.4Bn Target

Actual: K92.4 Bn (98%)

VAT (Value Added Tax) Collections - K 31.0Bn Target

Actual: K27.5 Bn (89%)
Social Sector Execution Rate (Jan - Aug)

Social Cash Transfer (SCT) Program - K 16.2Bn Annual Budget

Executed: 67% (On Track)

Constituency Development Fund (CDF) Disbursement

Disbursed: 55% (Lagging)

Actionable Insights by Stakeholder

Private Sector Impact
  • **Credit Crowding Out:** Expenditure underspending (Actual K137.7Bn vs Target K152.0Bn) means liquidity remains constrained, but the high domestic borrowing target (revised deficit) keeps interest rates high (around 29.0%), reducing affordability for business credit.
  • **Arrears:** Outstanding payments to suppliers increased to **K84.1 Billion** (as of Aug 2025). This liquidity drain severely impacts contractor and supplier cash flows.
  • **Revenue Risk:** Consistent VAT underperformance suggests business profitability may be softer than initial budget projections due to drought and power issues.
Government Agencies & MoFNP
  • **Spending Efficiency:** Overall expenditure lags target (-9.4%), indicating weak **budget execution capacity** across line ministries, particularly on capital projects.
  • **Revenue Opportunity:** Total Revenue is slightly below target (-5.3%), suggesting ZRA needs to focus efforts on improving **VAT compliance** and tightening exemptions to meet the full-year target.
  • **Fiscal Target:** The projected annual deficit (4.6%) requires continued strict expenditure controls to prevent backloading of costs in Q4 and exceeding the revised IMF fiscal limits.
NGO / Development Sector Focus
  • **Social Shield:** **Social Cash Transfer** execution is largely on track (67% utilized against time-proportionate budget), confirming the government's prioritization of protecting vulnerable households post-drought.
  • **Decentralization Lag:** **CDF disbursement** (55%) is lagging, signaling delays in devolving funds to local communities, which impacts local job creation and small-scale infrastructure projects.
  • **Funding Risk:** Subdued external financing disbursements are forcing higher domestic borrowing, which puts pressure on the overall budget, threatening the ring-fencing of social spending in the medium term.